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Биткоин vs. Доллар

📌 This time, the consequences of bitcoin supply halving could be more significant.

In a new post on Site X, Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, discussed how U.S. bitcoin miners are acting in anticipation of the upcoming harbingue. Bitcoin

– In a new post on Site X, Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, discussed how U.S. bitcoin miners are acting in anticipation of the upcoming harbingue.

Harbinging in this context refers to a periodic event in bitcoin where the cryptocurrency’s reward per block is permanently halved. This event occurs every four years, and the next one is estimated to occur in April this year.

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Block reward is a BTC reward that miners receive as compensation for adding blocks to the network. Since this reward typically makes up the majority of a miner’s income (thanks to historically low transaction fees on this coin), halving it has a significant impact on the economics of mining.

Despite the imminent halving, US-registered mining companies seem to have decided to hold onto their bitcoins for now, rather than sell them.

“US-listed mining companies are holding on to their bitcoin holdings without significant selling pressure, which is evident from their wallet activity.” noted Mr. Ju.

CryptoQuant’s CEO explains why these miners are holding on to their coins for now: the supply shock that the halving event is having on cryptocurrencies.

“Bitcoin halving is a supply shock when new supply is halved. If demand stays the same and supply shrinks, prices will rise.”

The asset has been affected by such a supply shock to varying degrees throughout the cycle, but according to Ju, this time the effects could be particularly significant.

That’s because the sector is home to large organizations like Blackrock and other spot ETF providers that need to acquire bitcoin in well-regulated ways.

The mining companies that are one of the sources of bitcoin for these organizations have kept their holdings low so far, so the supply available for purchase by these mega-large companies is limited.

A useful indicator to help determine if these organizations have begun to put significant buying pressure on the market could be the Coinbase Premium Index. This index tracks the percentage difference between the BTC prices listed on cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Binance.

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Coinbase is known to be the preferred platform for institutional traders in the US, so a positive premium (higher prices on the platform than on Binance) could mean relatively high buying pressure from these key players.

We expect the CB premium to remain positive for several months after the next price drop, as it was during the 2020-2021 bull run after the March 2020 price drop,” says CryptoQuant’s founder.

Bitcoin’s price is currently hovering around $42,900 and has been in a range lately.