Compass Investments

Bitcoin vs. Dollar

📌 Which Vice President Trump will pick, Polymarket gives best odds to Tim Scott: prediction market.

The Republican and Democratic parties will announce their vice presidential candidates in the coming weeks as the US gears up for the November elections. Win

– The Republican and Democratic parties will announce their vice presidential candidates in the coming weeks as the US gears up for the November elections.

Cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket is currently funding $13.7 million to determine the likely vice presidential candidate for the Republican Party, but the market is far from forming a consensus.

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott leads with 23%. However, the “other man” and “other woman” contracts together total 25%. Other leading Republicans have not even crossed the double-digit mark. Marco Rubio has 4%, and Vivek Ramaswamy is better known in the “dissent” crowd than among the general electorate: 3%, but $1.1 million dollars is at stake.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr, known for his ardent anti-vaccine views, has 2%. A descendant of a Democratic dynasty, Kennedy has yet to move to the Republican Party, but Twitter has already discussed the idea of a united Trump and Kennedy candidacy.

Free money

Polymarket does not allow users from the US, so bettors on the platform may not be the most informed about US politics.

An uninformed market can create price discrepancies when there is a time lag between the actual probability of something happening and the market price.

CSP Trading may have discovered this: in a post on X (formerly Twitter), Polymarket noted that Democrats only have a 90% chance of winning New York; if 90% sounds high, the last time Republicans won that state was 1984. Ronald Reagan.

Polls show Biden winning the state by a 10-point margin, and while that margin is shrinking, it is still significant. One could argue that crime and chaos in New York are caused by ultra-progressive policies, and that the ruling elite care more about pronouns in email signatures than the plight of workers. But in response, moderate Democrats are being recruited at all levels of government, and voters have accepted that. So it seems unlikely that a protest vote against Democrats will form, but perhaps this is terminal internet wishful thinking.

Other blue state contracts show similar numbers. The market believes there is a 92% chance that California will go Democratic, a 10% chance that Washington State will go Republican, and a 93% chance that West Virginia will go Republican.

Historically, all of these states have had one-party rule for the longest time.

California, for example, has consistently voted Democratic since 1992, when it decided to elect Bill Clinton to replace the second term of George Bush Sr. and has stayed that way ever since. Sure, there were Republican years from 1952 to 1988, but according to current polls, California is definitely a landslide for President Joe Biden and the Democrats.

But, as they say like a horse’s ear, betting “Yes” on Polymarket’s “Democrats will win in New York” contract will yield a return of about 10%.

Betting on the weather may seem as flawed as betting on the likelihood that a particular crypto project will launch an airdrop this year. Critics might say that these are compulsive punters looking for something new to bet on.

But they aren’t. Weather derivatives are the oldest and most primitive form of prediction markets. Climate change is creating new levels of unpredictability and urgency: a record warm winter in 2023, severe storms and unexpected cooling are all possible.




BTC -3.38%




ETH -1.73%

Binance Coin

Binance Coin


BNB -2.01%




XRP -2.24%




DOGE -1.98%




ADA -3.18%




SOL -8.50%