Compass Investments

– X’s first attempt to enter the event betting sphere began and ended with Kalshi. In late May, the U.S. regulated exchange issued a press release announcing a partnership with Musk’s platform. Bloomberg reported that the notice disappeared hours later, and Kalshi confirmed that the deal had fallen through.

The rejection also hinted at a disagreement between Kalshi’s rigid model and X’s global goals.

Key factors that derailed the original plan:

Kalshi’s announcement surprised observers: it was released without the traditional pomp of Musk’s social media or X’s corporate accounts.

There were compliance issues: Kalshi contracts require oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to limit the availability of markets on X.

By the end of the day, both companies had removed references to the deal, indicating a breakup rather than a postponement.

After just a couple weeks, X switched its focus to cryptocurrency, naming Polymarket as its official prediction partner.

The shift coincided with Musk’s preference for decentralized solutions that can scale internationally without the limitations of traditional brokers. Unlike Kalshi, Polymarket is already on the blockchain and is primarily focused on players outside the U.S., which simplifies many of the jurisdictional issues that plagued the previous attempt.

Shane Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, marked the announcement with an energetic post.

Proud to announce @Polymarket’s partnership with @X and @xai as the official prediction marketplace partner. Two of the best truth-seeking apps on the internet have become stronger together.

Welcome to News 2.0.

The official X account supported this opinion a few hours later. Notably, Musk himself remained silent, letting the companies’ statements speak for him. This contrasts with his usual engagement, but shows confidence in the product.

X plans to integrate Polymarket probabilities right into the social feed, turning fast-paced discussions into a live dashboard of crowd sentiment. Instead of having to navigate to a separate site, users will see a small probability widget pinned under popular posts and updated in real time.

When a hot topic (such as an election, a sports final, or the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision) picks up steam, the panel will display the latest numbers from the cryptocurrency prediction market and a link to the full contract on Polymarket for those outside the restricted jurisdiction.

What users can expect at launch:

A compact probability bar that appears below tweets related to an active Polymarket contract.

Hover or tap to see a brief description, current odds and 24-hour movement.

Go to the Polymarket interface with one click for more detailed charts (geo-referenced for US users).

the ability to monitor a contract by adding real-time notifications to the X notification panel.