Compass Investments

– Ethereum’s historical cycle peaks have coincided with spikes in withdrawals greater than 250,000-300,000 recorded in 2018, in 2021, and in early 2024. Each maximum in the exchange withdrawal counter coincided almost flawlessly with a local or cyclical peak.

However, at the time of publication, the chart was trending downward, not upward.

The usual chaos that indicates an overheated market was not present.

This leaves two hypotheses: either Ethereum is deviating from its long-term behavioral pattern, or the true peak (the moment of mass euphoria and outflow of funds from exchanges) has not yet arrived.

big buyers are behind this process.

According to Lookonchain, Tom Lee’s company, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, has accumulated 128,718 ETH (approximately $480 million) on six new addresses, withdrawing tokens from FalconX and Kraken immediately after the sharp drop.

analysts also noted massive buy walls in the $3.3 k-$3.5 k range, which helped whales hold those levels.

Although ETH still looks technically weak, these inflows confirm the belief that the real rally (and possibly the real ATH cycle) is yet to come.

Is ETH recovering?

At the time of publication, Ethereum was trading around $3,824, up 1.97% after a sharp sell-off.

The RSI was at 36.7, a slight oversold zone, which is often a sign of an upward move. The MACD remained below zero, the bearish momentum weakening as the histogram shrank.

As for the DMI, the negative directional indicator (33.4) prevailed, but the positive index (14.8) was gradually rising. Downward pressure is easing, which could lead to a short-term rebound if buyers hold the $3,500 level.