Compass Investments

February 4, 2026 Bitcoin [BTC] has been under pressure. At the time of writing, BTC was down 3.14% over the past 24 hours, trading at $76,246.31 and testing levels that many experts believe are already behind it.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg Crypto, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz had this to say: Bitcoin wasn’t supposed to behave like this. Something went wrong. I think we’re close to the minimum, but we’ll see.

The crypto community also reacted to Novogratz’s conclusion, with one X account noting:

That’s right. When influential figures like Novogratz start talking about the lower boundary, it’s a reason to take a closer look. BTC volatility hasn’t gone away, it’s just forcing less confident market participants to exit before the next upswing.

Another user X pointed to a four-year market cycle, adding:

If you believe in the established four-year cycle, then this is expected. this decline in the market is not unexpected. It is part of the standard Bitcoin cycle that follows every halving. After the April 2024 halving, 2025, as in previous cycles, was marked by significant growth.

October 2025, Bitcoin reached a record high of $126,000. But now, 22 months after the halving, the market has entered a correction phase.

During this period, holders who entered the market earlier often lock in profits, leading to a decline in quotes. Bitcoin’s current value is almost 40% below its peak, which is in line with previous corrections after the hype.

The overall economic environment has only exacerbated the decline. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East are causing anxiety in global markets, causing investors to favor more reliable assets such as gold and reducing interest in riskier assets like Bitcoin.

In addition, the US Federal Reserve’s tight interest rate stance, especially after the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chief, has further restricted the availability of liquidity.

Amidst this uncertainty, another X user asked the question:

“Is a rebound imminent?”

What are the technical indicators saying?

While Bitcoin is going through this period of volatility, technical indicators are giving reason for cautious optimism. While the MACD is still showing a bearish slope, the RSI has fallen to a severe oversold zone of about 27 points as of this writing.

In the past, this has often preceded a short-term recovery.

This sharp selling wave may have been excessive and too fast, opening the door for a potential rally to $80,000.

Bitcoin’s dominance rate of around 60% is another positive signal, indicating that investors are keeping funds in Bitcoin rather than leaving the cryptocurrency market altogether.