📌 Stagflationary trends and unlevered tariff policies are preventing cheaper borrowing, contributing to the persistence of higher interest rates, which adversely affects volatile assets.
– Not a word about digital assets or cryptocurrencies in the nearly two-hour speech, though Trump’s family is closely tied to the field and he has made campaign promises before.
the Supreme Court struck down the emergency duties he imposed; Trump promises to impose stronger measures using new legal leverage, but the vague outline of plans has alarmed trading partners and markets.
US President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, which lasted nearly two hours – a record in US history. He highlighted economic achievements, warned Iran about nuclear weapons and defended his tax policy after a Supreme Court setback.
However, digital currencies were completely absent from the speech, which touched on taxation, AI, housing and health care.
This omission is quite noticeable. All of Trump’s children were in attendance, including sons Donald Jr. and Eric, who have been active in crypto projects such as World Liberty Financial and various token startups.
The president himself has repeatedly stated his intention to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.
Nothing of the sort was said in his address.
Macroeconomic, not regulatory, signals were more important to crypto markets.
Trump called the Supreme Court’s decision striking down his special tariffs “very disappointing” and vowed to keep them in place under alternative legal grounds, insisting that “Congressional action will not be required.
However, the implementation of the duties quickly turned into confusion. Trump first announced a replacement rate of 10% , and a few days later adjusted it to 15% . At the same time, according to official papers, the lower rate went into effect on Tuesday, and no decree to raise it was made public. On Monday, the European Union suspended approval of its summer trade agreement and India postponed planned talks.
Trump repeated his assertion that duties could largely replace the income tax.
Economists consider that a pipe dream. In 2024, 2.4 trillion dollars will be added to the federal budget through income taxes, but only 300 billion is expected from tariffs, and now about half of that amount will have to be returned after a court ruling. Plus, the tariffs are paid by U.S. importers, not foreign governments.
As for consumer prices, Trump has said that core inflation will fall to 1.7% by the end of 2025. The situation is more complicated. The Fed’s preferred measure, core PCE, rose to 3% in December, well above the 2% target.
As price pressures persist and the rate strategy issue has not been resolved, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in the near term. The three-quarter-point rate cut late last year is likely to be the last one for some time. For risky assets, including crypto markets, the high rate environment remains in place.
While there was no mention of cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence received a separate block of attention. Trump voiced a commitment to protecting rates by requiring IT companies to build their own power facilities for data centers, acknowledging that the energy system will never be able to handle the growing demand.