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The closed Strait of Hormuz is located at the heart of the world’s energy flows, so any disruption to its operation entails a violation of transit passage and freedom of navigation under international maritime law.

Threats of attacks on commercial vessels pose significant legal and economic risks to public and private actors. Previous instances of Iran’s detention of commercial vessels have been considered non-compliance with international law, undermining freedom of navigation, as reported by USNI News. Even without an official blockade, real threats can complicate traffic, provoke naval escorts and increase the likelihood of errors.

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S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that the near-term impact will be operational rather than a total shutdown, with shipowners and charterers changing routes, rescheduling voyages and increasing vigilance. Insurance companies are reviewing their exposure to war risks as underwriters adjust assessments and contingencies for passage. According to Jacob Larsen, head of security at BIMCO, commercial risk managers perceive the threats as significant and in some cases choose to bypass the strait altogether. Any prolonged uncertainty leads to increased price gaps (spreads), extended voyage times and reduced available tonnage.

Regarding pricing, diplomatic sources warn that a complete shutdown could cut exports by five million barrels daily and push the price of oil to between $200 and $300 a barrel, according to Iraq’s foreign ministry. These figures are scenario calculations, not projections, and depend on the duration of the situation, the availability of alternative routes and the political steps taken.

Amid these risk adjustments, rhetoric has intensified.

We will not allow a single drop of oil to leave the region, IRGC Brigadier General Sardar Ibrahim Jabbari said, as quoted by Al-Monitor.

European officials have made it clear that the priority is to reduce tensions; EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that blocking Hormuz would be extremely dangerous and would not benefit anyone. The statement underscores the desire to keep diplomatic channels open while monitoring sea lanes.

Separately, the heads of France, Germany and Britain called on Tehran to seek compromise through dialog, expressing concern over retaliatory measures that threaten stability in the region, according to The Guardian. Coordination between the allies has traditionally focused on deterrence, crisis communications and trade continuity.

According to reports by industry experts, shipowners are suspending or changing routes, anchoring in more protected waters or crossing only during daylight hours, CNBC reported. Underwriters are re-evaluating claims coverage, and captains and PandI clubs are tightening watchkeeping and reporting procedures.

What does international law say about Iran closing the strait or aggression against ships?

International maritime law guarantees freedom of navigation and transit passage; the use of force to block civilian navigation would raise serious questions of legality and risks state liability.

How could this affect global black gold prices and LNG supplies in the short to medium term?