Compass Investments

– Key Points: Bitcoin is showing resilience by distancing itself from traditional stocks and gold despite the strengthening US dollar.

institutional interest in bitcoin remains strong, as evidenced by net inflows into ETFs totaling $1.5 billion for the week.

Bitcoin (BTC) held at $68,000 on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq 100 index down 1% and gold prices plummeting 3.6% . Although bitcoin initially behaved independently of the mainstream markets, traders are still concerned about the strength of the U.S. currency against other key fiat currencies, even amid the likelihood of a protracted U.S. conflict with Iran.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) reached 99.4 on Tuesday, up from 96.6 just three weeks earlier. The greenback’s rise is due to investors seeking refuge in cash and government securities, signs that are usually associated with risk reduction. Conversely, periods of weakening DXY often correlate with positive bitcoin performance, as was the case during the bull trend from March through August 2025.

However, a broader view shows that the USD index is still well below its 105-110 level held from November 2024 through March 2025. In fact, the picture of the past twelve months looks more like a phase of consolidation rather than sustained strength. Bitcoin’s recent divergence from tech stocks looks more significant given that the correlation was previously rising, even when the Nasdaq 100 was trading just 6% below its peak.

the 30-day moving correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to 69% after reaching 92% a week earlier. Bitcoin’s market image has changed many times: it has been seen as an autonomous monetary system, digital gold, an impenetrable onchain database, and a speculative tool. Consequently, predictions of Bitcoin’s decline based only on the strength of the dollar do not seem fully justified.

The apparent lack of bullish enthusiasm persists, likely due to factors such as the October 10, 2025 collapse, concerns about quantum computing, frustration with the pace at which the U.S. is building a strategic bitcoin reserve, and investors’ attention shifting to AI. Traders are still waiting for a concrete reason to drop to $60,000, fueling the prevailing fears and uncertainty.

The recent announcement by MARA Holdings (MARA US) to the SEC has caused market participants to misinterpret the company’s plans to build bitcoin reserves. Bidders have expressed concern that MARA may follow the lead of other well-known miners such as Cango (CANG US), Bitdeer (BTDR UR) and Core Scientific (CORZ US), which recently sold off their bitcoin reserves completely.

Robert Samuels, MARA’s vice president of investor relations, denied the speculation, explaining that the companymay buy or sell from time to time, which does not mean it intends to get rid of the bulk of its assets. The market may have reacted hastily before this clarification, mainly because bitcoin was in a downtrend while competitors were refocusing their key business models on AI data centers.

The situation with the relative strength of the U.S. dollar index should not be seen as an automatic signal to sell bitcoin. This is all the more true because the cryptocurrency is showing resilience while gold is showing signs of weakening, retesting the $5,000 support level after a 25 percent rise in 2026. Bitcoin holders still have a long way to go to fully regain confidence after a 52 percent drop from an all-time high, though overall sentiment is starting to improve.