Compass Investments

– Ethereum’s native asset, Ether (ETH), has the potential to rise by about a quarter in the coming months as the group of top holders moved into the profit zone for the first time since early February.

Key takeaways: ETH has averaged gains of about 25% per quarter and 50% per six months as the biggest whales of past cycles began to turn a profit again.

Ether could surpass $2,750 by June if the whale indicator on the blockchain confirms the trend.

According to CryptoQuant, the unrealized profit rate for wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH has once again risen above zero. In other words, the cumulative paper losses of this group of holders are no longer recorded.

As CW’s network analyst notes, such transitions to a “profitable state” have previously coincided with the beginning of an upward movement.

On average, ETH saw nearly 25% gains in the three months after the whale’s profitability ratio turned positive. Similarly, its value was up about 50% six months and 300% a year after that signal occurred.

Price behavior shows that once the top ETH holders go into the plus side of the aggregate, their incentive to sell decreases, thereby protecting the price. At the same time, this shift may bolster confidence in the market as a whole, signaling renewed optimism among the largest ETH holders.

ETH could approach $2,750 by June and exceed $3,200 by September if the historical post-signal scenario continues.

However, the whale ratio indicator is not completely reliable. For example, in 2018, after a similar change, ETH lost 17.5% in a month and then collapsed by almost 70% .

There is another onchain indicator that confirms the prospects of Ethereum’s recovery.

Glassnode data indicates that ETH is rebounding from the bottom of the MVRV band (blue line) – a situation similar to the second quarter of 2022 and 2025, when the price recovered from undervalued positions and rose above the realized price.

At the current rate, ETH remains below the realized price (purple line) at $2,353, which acts as the first important level for a rebound. A breakdown of this level could open the way to the -0.5 sigma range (turquoise) around $2,640.

On the other hand, if it fails to regain the realized price, ETH could test the lower boundary of the rejection band around $1,651 again.

From a technical point of view, ETH has broken the ascending triangle pattern and is now making a reversal to the former trend resistance line.

Such retests are typical after breakdowns, as markets often return to the breakout level to confirm that it has turned into a new support.

Ether may resume rising towards the triangle target level of $2,625 or higher, provided the upper trend line holds as support.