Compass Investments

– A researcher from EGRAG CRYPTO presented a monthly chart of XRP on Bitstamp on March 21, which revealed a macro W formation spanning the 2017-2018 cycles and the current period.

The W shape has a two-stage configuration: the first stage forms a lower point, then price returns to the neckline, followed by a retracement to create a second lower point, and then breaks above the neckline with a subsequent rise to the target level.

At the time of charting, the value of XRP stood at $1.44355, showing a 4.87% increase during the trading session. The first phase of the W formation is complete, it strengthened at the multi-year low formed between 2019 and 2023. The neckline breakout occurred in late 2024-early 2025, when the price crossed the $2.00 mark and headed towards the $3.32 zone, marked on the chart as the first estimated resistance. The current situation is basically a correction phase, where the price has moved away from $3.32 to the breakout area at $1.60.

The box on the left shows a similar but smaller pattern from the 2014-2017 cycle with breakout, pullback, and bullish hammer candlestick marks. On the current chart, there is a bullish hammer candlestick at $1.44 during the pullback, which is a direct structural analog of the previous pattern.

EGRAG CRYPTO considers the range of $1.60 – $1.80 as a zone where the integrity of the structure is preserved. Holding above this range during the current pullback supports the relevance of the W formation and the potential for further upside. The red horizontal line drawn at $2.00142 is defined by the analyst as a confirmation level. Recovery and consolidation of quotations above $2.00 opens the way to $3.32, marked by the green line, and potentially higher values.

The $3.32 mark acts as the first estimated barrier after the breakout. Overcoming this level, according to the analyst’s forecast, will entail the movement to the full width of the figure W in the direction of $22, indicated in the upper right corner of the chart by the yellow line. This target coincides with what EGRAG CRYPTO calls the resistance of the “neck” of the macrostructure, historical growth multipliers of the past XRP cycles and peculiarities of macrocycle behavior.

The invalidation area is in the $1.40-$1.20 range. A loss of this price area with a close below would indicate a pullback failure and unrealized breakout, not consolidation. Failure to regain the $2.00 level and the subsequent breakout acts as a secondary invalidation signal, as weak price behavior at this level indicates that the expansion phase is not beginning as the pattern suggests.

EGRAG CRYPTO offers a multi-level probabilistic breakout scenario, rather than presenting $22 as the only possible outcome. A full completion of the W pattern to $22 is estimated by the analyst at 25-35% .

A partial extension into the range **from $3.00 to $8.00** has a 50-60% probability, which is a more likely outcome if the structure is maintained. A failure or deeper correction has a 10-15% probability.

This distribution is a fair representation of a pattern with a strong underlying structure but a very high ultimate target. The $22 forecast is achievable within the logic of the calculated movement and is consistent with the behavior of previous up cycles coming from comparable W-shaped formations. It will take time, structural stability above key marks, and confirmation at each stage before the next leg up is possible.

The sequence defined by EGRAG CRYPTO is staged, not simultaneous. The priority now is to hold the $1.44-$1.60 area during the correction. The formation of a hammer candle at current levels signals the possible completion of the pullback. A return to $2.00 is the first confirmation. A consolidation above $3.32 opens the way to more significant tops. Each next move depends on the previous level being maintained.