Compass Investments

– A geopolitical cataclysm over the weekend wiped out eight days of progress in a single hour candle.

At the time of writing, bitcoin is quoted at $68,778 on Binance’s hourly chart, showing a minimal rise of 0.06% in an hour after a busy overnight session. The chart, which covers the period from March 21 to the morning of March 22, shows that the price held within the $70,500-$70,750 range for most of Saturday, consolidating below the 50-period simple moving average through $70,131, which was already sloping downward and dampening recovery attempts during the day.

The breakout occurred closer to the evening. In one candle the quote collapsed from $70,250 to a low of $68,648 – this is the largest bar and the sharpest volume jump on the chart by a wide margin. After reaching this low, the price attempted a rebound to $69,500 in the early hours but then corrected again. Bitcoin then fluctuated between $68,778 and $69,300 for several hours, failing to regain the lost levels that had previously served as support before the collapse.

the 50-period simple moving average at $70,131 is now located about $1,350 above the current value and is clearly pointing downward. The 50-day simple moving average on the daily timeframe is at $69,975, just above the current price, making this level the first major obstacle to any recovery. The 200-day simple moving average at $93,097 emphasizes how far the market has moved away from its previous average trend.

the 14-period RSI on the hourly chart is fixed at 29.59 and its signal line at 33.26. A reading below 30 moves the momentum into the oversold zone, indicating that the high recent speed and intensity of selling has pushed the short-term momentum indicator to its lower limit. The signal line above at 33.26 suggests a sharp rather than gradual intensification of bearish sentiment after the overnight failure. The RSI indicator reached its lowest point in the moments of the decline itself, as shown by the shaded pink area at the bottom of the indicator bar, followed by a partial recovery. This recovery without a significant price increase reflects the market, which absorbed the immediate shock, but has not yet found buyers ready to buy back aggressively from the current positions.

Late Saturday, Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, threatening to strike the country’s power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened to commercial shipping.

That escalation dramatically changed the tone Friday, when Trump had hinted at curtailing military activity.

Markets spent the previous week building faith in de-escalation, and bitcoin rode that wave to a weekly peak of $75,912. The ultimatum expires on Monday evening. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and gas exports pass, remains virtually inaccessible to most merchant ships.

the Fear and Greed Index for BTC is 10, which corresponds to extreme fear.

This means that the current market sentiment is at one of the most pessimistic levels, which correlates with the market’s assessment of sustained uncertainty rather than just a temporary downturn. Volatility is estimated at 3.67% as average, indicating a sharp overnight spike, which, however, has not yet triggered the kind of sustained elevated volatility that characterizes the most acute phases of previous declines.