Compass Investments

– Efirium fell from a session peak of $2,325 to a low of $2,212 on the largest volume bearish bar since April 8, breaking through its 50-day moving average (SMA) at $2,242 for the first time since the post-ceasefire rally began. This SMA had been a rising support throughout the rebound. Now it has turned out to be resistance, located $30 above the current price.

The RSI at 37.12 is approaching oversold territory. The signal line at 45.44 remains noticeably higher. This large gap signals that the momentum has weakened faster than the moving average can reflect. The last bar showed a volume of 2.78K, selling has weakened, but buyers are not showing any resolve.

support in the range of $2,175-$2,180 is a critical level determining further movement. It has twice withstood corrections after the bounce on April 9 and 10. Today this level was not touched. At the current pace of the session, it is likely to be tested before the end of the session.

CryptoQuant’s chart of unrealized profit/loss (PandL) by cohort shows a deeper picture than just price movement. As of April 10, all major ETH holder cohorts – addresses with 100k ETH, 10k to 100k ETH, and 1k to 10k ETH – are simultaneously at near zero unrealized gains. The lines for all three groups almost coincide with the baseline.

The cohort of 10 thousand to 100 thousand ETH stands out in particular. These addresses are showing a slight loss, which means that the mid-tier whales are already in the negative on their positions. This is important because holders at a loss behave differently than those at breakeven. They have an incentive to sell before the loss gets bigger, rather than wait for a recovery. The cohort with more than 100k ETH, the largest holders, remains in minimal plus, meaning these addresses have not yet recorded a loss. It is this discrepancy between the two groups that is likely to be the source of selling pressure in the near future.

The last time this pattern was seen across all cohorts simultaneously was during the 2022 bear market, when all cohorts went from breakeven to deep minus while ETH fell from $3,000 to $900. Near-zero performance also occurred briefly in mid-2021 before a second bullwave returned all cohorts to substantial profits. Two historical examples with opposite outcomes.

The breakdown of the 50-day SMA and the zero PandL holders are not disjointed facts. They describe the same point of view from different angles. The chart reflects the weakening of the technical structure after the macro stimulus disappeared. The on-chain data shows the financial health of the holders, which determines whether the structure recovers or collapses.

When holders are at breakeven point and the chart is below key support, the least resistance lies in the direction of a test of the next lower level before any upside attempt. A break of the 50 SMA increases selling pressure from traders using this level as a stop-loss. The mid-size whale cohort, already taking losses, adds to the pressure from those trying to limit losses. None of these pressures will abate until the $2,175 level is either tested and held (bringing the structure back to former support) or broken, at which point the 2022 precedent becomes the more relevant comparison.