Compass Investments

– The Osaka release will bring efficiency and organizational improvements.

– Signals suggest a recovery is imminent, but BNB is lagging behind Bitcoin for now.

– The breakout will depend on the inertia of the move after the upgrade.

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The Osaka/Mendel hardfork is scheduled to be activated on April 28 at 02:30 UTC, which will introduce nine protocol amendments related to speed, gas limits and finalization – the market is watching closely as BNB is trading at $632.

less than two days from now, BNB Chain will see its most significant update in 2026.

It’s not a speed upgrade – BNB Chain has already taken care of that. The launch of the Fermi fork earlier reduced the block lock time to 0.45 seconds.

Osaka is the fixing phase: it is necessary to make sure that the achieved speed can withstand the real load of institutional players.

The key change is BEP-652, which sets a hard gas ceiling of 16,777,216 per transaction, ensuring that all nodes are unified in avoiding overly large transactions.

parallel BEP-648 aims to minimize latency and speed up transaction validation, and the update adds support for secp256r1 cryptography, a standard already integrated into enterprise security hardware systems, opening a direct path to institutional infrastructure.

The technical picture before the split is nuanced and worth scrutinizing on both pairs.

On the weekly chart of BNB/USD (data as of April 26, 2026 – 07:28 UTC), the price is at $632, sandwiched between the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands at $467.76 and the midpoint at $719.96 – a noticeably wide band.

Countdown to Osaka: Will the April 28 update help push BNB above the resistance barrier?

BNBUSD weekly chart. TradingView.

The RSI Index shows a more revealing picture: both lines are in the oversold zone, the purple one at 39.79 and the yellow one at 37.03, but it is crucial that the purple one crosses the yellow one from the bottom to the top.

On weekly intervals, RSI crossovers from oversold territory have often signaled the early stages of BNB’s recovery in the past.

The chart shows the historical peak at $1,375.90, which clearly demonstrates the depth of the current correction – and the upside potential.