Compass Investments

The Solana derivatives market has not seen a day dominated by sellers in the past month. Large spot trades were present throughout the rise from $78 to $91 and then stabilized.

Highlights: SOL at $85.25 – all three MAs clustered at $86.06-$86.37.

Cumulative Volume Difference (CVD) for futures: neutral as of April 27.

Average spot lot size: normal.

Average contract size on futures: 1,184.8 SOL.

There were two unsuccessful attempts to rise to $90-$91.

Western Union USDPT started working on Solana in May.

The partnership was announced in October 2025.

the most informative marker of the current Solana market structure is not reflected in the price chart. This is CryptoQuant’s CVD futures data: a 90-day cumulative measure of whose orders (buyers or sellers) have been more persistent in the SOL contract market. For the entire period from March 28 to April 27, not a single day recorded a preponderance of selling. All indicators remain either neutral or tilted to the buy side.

This is not a classic bullish sign, but rather a structural one. This distinction is important because it dictates the type of recovery needed. In a market dominated by selling, the price will not rise until there are no more sellers. A market where the sales pressure has already subsided only needs an influx of new buyers. According to CVD, SOL is now in the second scenario, which is easier to realize.

During this period, SOL fell from $98 to $78 without any obvious selling pressure through futures instruments. The drop looked more like a weakening of buying activity rather than an intensification of selling. The former is due to bull fatigue, the latter is due to bear motivation, and CVD points to the former.

The average spot size chart shows that large orders from whales were active during the climb from $78 to about $91 in late March through April 16. These large spot orders were the demand that pushed the rise. After April 23, the chart shows standard volume trades. The big players pulled back. They didn’t sell (CVD confirms no aggressive selling), they just stopped building positions.

average volume of futures contracts paints a more subtle picture. Since April 13, the size of trades has gradually increased, climbing on the chart but staying within the normal range.

The level of institutional volumes has not yet been reached. However, the trend is positive: participants in futures trading are increasing volumes, not yet taking risks that would be classified as large-cap positioning.

the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving average lines are now clustered in the $86.06-$86.37 corridor, with only $0.31 difference between them. When moving averages from different periods converge closely, they create a common point of reference for the market. The price of $85.25 is just below this cluster.

the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34.35 is approaching oversold levels and the signal line at 45.30, indicating a notable selling momentum over the past week. The RSI has not yet reached the oversold level that marked the $78 bottom in late March, but it is moving in that direction as long as the stock holds above the support in the $83-$84 area.

A close above $86.37 would lead to a simultaneous break above all three averages, a break above the equilibrium zone, and no obstacles from the MA to about $90. A rebound at $86 and a failure below $83 would retest the $78-$80 range.