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Interest rate futures put the odds of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday at nearly 87% .

Custodia CEO Caitlin Long believes the Treasury Department is overstepping the Feds authority.

Bitcoin is hovering around $77,250, down from the $82,000 level reached earlier this month.

With three days to go before the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision, Bitcoin is holding near $77,250, while futures markets put the probability of a quarter-point rate hike on Wednesday at 86.5% .

Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long insists that more significant shifts are taking place in a different area. In her view, it is the Treasury Departmentnot the Fedthat is now setting the course for the rollout of the digital dollar.

Chairman Kevin Warsh will announce the decision on September 16, nearly four months after taking office. Prediction markets, as compiled by Kalshi and Polymarket, estimate the probability of a similar rate hike at over 80% . LINE_BREAK The inflation report released on Friday had the greatest impact. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August after a 0.1% increase in July, bringing annual inflation to 3.4% .

Disagreement is already evident within the committee. In July, it left rates at 3.503% .75% , but three committee members issued dissenting opinions and advocated for a rate hike at that time.

Bitcoin has already lost some of its recent gains. The odds of a Fed rate hike were 50/50 on September 4, when BeInCrypto reported that BTC had risen to $82,000.

Since then, those odds have steadily increased. BTC is now trading several thousand dollars lower and has remained virtually unchanged over the past 24 hours.

There is a precedent for this central issue. In August, yields on 10-year and 30-year bonds reached 20-year highs, and on August 19, the Treasury Department responded by doubling the volume of bond buybacks with longer maturities to $4 billion per transaction.

Yields fell on this news. A few days later, they rose again, fully recouping the previous decline.

This program is currently underwayfrom September 9 through November 4. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could finance it using funds from the Treasurys general account, which holds nearly $1 trillion.

UBS strategists argued this month that the main question isnt whether the Fed will take any action. What matters are the conditions under which the Fed will operate, and those conditions are taking shape in the long-term bond market.”,”detected_source_language”:”RU