Compass Investments

– Brandt notes an upward breakout in the XAU/BTC ratio.

Bitcoin is trading 50% below its October 2025 peak.

Gold is holding steady at $4,174 after a 25% pullback.

Sailor and on-chain transaction data suggest otherwise.

In a post on X, this 50-year trading veteranknown for his classic approach to chart analysis, extensive experience in the futures market, and Bitcoin commentary that attracts a wide audience stated that he is considering selling a portion of his Bitcoin in favor of gold and published a monthly XAU/BTC chart.

I think gold will strengthen significantly against Bitcoin, Brandt added. On his chart, the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio stands at 0.067; it is beginning to rise from a multi-year low that formed after a decade of decline, and the projected trajectory suggests that the ratio will break out of its long-term downtrend channel.

Long-term monthly technical chart of the XAU/BTC ratio (gold to Bitcoin) for the period from 2010 to 2028, showing a significant multi-year downtrend confined within a downward channel.

Monthly technical analysis of the XAU/BTC ratio by Peter Brandt. LINE_BREAK The ratios mathematics explains the timing of the breakout. Since Bitcoin peaked in October 2025 at $126,000, BTC has fallen by approximately 50% to around $63,000 at the time of writing, while gold rose to an all-time high of over $5,500 in late January and then corrected by about 25% to $4,174. Even after golds correction, the ratio over the cycle has shifted decisively in favor of the precious metaland it is precisely this shift in relative strength that Brandts channel analysis is designed to identify.

This year, Brandt has consistently expressed caution regarding Bitcoin, having previously identified an attractive investment zone in the $40,000$60,000 range before it reaches the $250,000 mark.

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Not everyone agrees with the idea that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into gold.

Shanaki Perrys analysis proves that the theory of a rotation is simply incorrect: while news headlines focused on outflows from ETFs, long-term holders added about 125,000 BTC, buying up the holdings that short-term fund investors were selling off in a panic.

The same report cites analyst Charlie Bilellos conclusion that both gold and Bitcoin were simultaneously trading below their long-term trend levels, indicating a parallel weakness across all hard assets rather than a shift of funds from one to the other this assessment is consistent with the 25% drop in the price of gold compared to its January record high.

Michael Saylor of Strategy offered a third explanation altogether.

This week on the New Era Finance podcast, he stated that massive capital raises by artificial intelligence companies have diverted tens of billions of dollars away from cryptocurrencies in the short term, though he still believes that 2026 will be the year Bitcoin achieves the status of universally recognized global digital capital. In his view, Bitcoins sluggish performance reflects an outflow of liquidity rather than a final verdict, and the competitor drawing away capital is AI infrastructure, not physical gold.

Brandts post has resonated with a wide audience. Ray Dalio stated in March that there is only one gold, noting on the All-In podcast that central banks will never hold an asset every transaction of which is publicly tracked, while Saylor has long set a goal for Bitcoins market capitalization to surpass that of gold within a decade. The difference with Brandts version is that it is not ideological in nature. It is a chart-based trading strategy that uses a ratio, a channel, and, consequently, an exit point, which also explains why it may change faster than the philosophical positions of either side.”,”detected_source_language”:”RU