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– Bitcoin has ended 8 of the last 13 Septembers in the red, with an average loss of 2.97% making it the worst month of the year in terms of both average and median returns.

September 2025 broke this trend, posting a 5.16% gainBitcoins third consecutive positive result however, in October, the market slipped into negative territory for the first time since 2018, just a few days before Trumps threats to impose tariffs triggered $19 billion in liquidations.

Bitcoin begins September 2026 near the $77,500 mark after a nearly 25 percent surge in August, while the Fed is considering its first rate hike since 2023, and a midterm election year is adding additional seasonal pressure.

Bitcoin investors have suffered losses in eight of the last 13 Septembers. The S&P 500 has, on average, posted losses in September since 1945, and researchers at Yardeni have traced this pattern back to 1928.

Bitcoin didnt invent this curse, but the digital asset has nonetheless joined the trend.

Myriad: What will be the next move for the Bitcoin price? Click to make your prediction.

Crypto traders call this Red Septembera sort of cyclical market scare that appears every year at this exact time. But this isnt superstition. Its a pattern in the dataone so consistent that neither a 15-year-old asset nor a century-old stock index can escape it.

But why does this happen?

According to CoinGlass data on monthly returns, since 2013, Bitcoin has closed September in the red eight times out of 13 completed yearsa success rate of 38.5% . The average return is -2.97% , the median is minus 2.44% , and both of these metrics are important: a negative median means that even a typical September results in losses, not just a few catastrophic months that drag the average down.

Bitcoins monthly returns.

Only June comes close to these figures, showing an average loss of 1.59% over the same period. All other months of the calendar show positive returns on average. October, which is by far the best month, yields an average return of 19.92% with a median of 14.71% it is precisely this reputation as Uptober that the crypto community on Twitter celebrates when the time comes. , “detected_source_language”: “EN

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Its worth noting something about August, as the numbers can be misleading. The average return for this month is a quite respectable +2.82% , but the median is -6.99% . In other words: in most cases, investors lose money in August, and only a handful of anomalous years pull the average up to a positive level.

On Wall Street, this trend has long been known and is well documented. According to Chases own market research, since 1945, the S&P 500 index has fallen by an average of about 0.6% in September, making it the only month with a negative average return over the long term. If we trace the history back to 1928, the figures get even worse: the average loss ranges from 1.1% to 1.2% .

No one can agree on the reasons. The main theories are: mutual funds close their fiscal year on October 31 and dispose of unprofitable assets in September to lock in tax losses; institutional traders return after the summer break and simultaneously implement deferred risk-reduction measures; and the Fed meeting in the middle of the month typically coincides with a peak in volatility.

None of these theories explains the situation with Bitcoin, which has neither a fiscal year nor a summer break, but is nonetheless a financial instrument.

This year, there is another factor at play. 2026 is a midterm election year, and over the past 10 such cycles since 1986, the U.S. stock markets average low has occurred on September 2, with an average decline of nearly 17% from the previous high until the markets recovered. Recently, Bitcoin has been trading more like a high-beta tech stock than a hedging instrument, so this correlation works both ways.

Last years Red September initially followed the script but then turned it on its head. Bitcoin started the month at around $108,000 with an RSI in the oversold zone near 38, and DYOR CEO Ben Kurland told Decrypt that the idea of Red September is more myth than math.

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